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Jeff Bogue is an independent, fee-only financial planner with his firm, Bogue Asset Management, LLC, based in Wells. He has been a certified financial planner (CFP) practitioner since 1997 and is a registered investment advisor in Maine and Texas.
March 28, 2007

Your Home a Great Investment or Is It?

What if you bought a home for slightly above $350K and after thirty years sold it for over $1.5 million dollars. Pretty sweet huh?

Not so fast.

Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal had a great article on the subject. In the article, Why your home isn’t the investment you think it is (subscription required), writer David Crook explained a house isn’t necessarily always a great investment. Initially he started by looking at 30 Years of Home-Price Increases data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Home price appreciation varied by location, with the major coastal cities leading in price gains. San Francisco topped the list, appreciating 1,125% or compounding roughly 8.7% annually. But over that time period, the national average was 481% or 5.375% annually.

Now on the surface, the returns may look nice, but most homeowners miss the other half of the picture. Crook explained that in home ownership, the costs incurred to own a home need to be taken into consideration as well. Not only does this include the initial down payment and mortgage principal payments, but they also include mortgage interest, real estate taxes, insurance, ongoing maintenance as well as major repairs and improvements. According to OFHEO, the cost for a person who put 20% down and mortgaged the rest on a $50,000 home back in 1977 would have incurred a conservative estimated cost of $394K over that time-span (not adjusted for inflation). If you bought that house in San Francisco, your $50,000 home would be worth $613,000 now and you would have ended up making money, but certainly much less than the pre-cost 8.7% annualized return. If you fell within the national appreciation average and cost estimates, you would have lost money. Yes, that’s right, lost money.

Curious, I decided to see what returns I would get if I bought a house today in the greater Portland area, using Portland’s historical appreciation rate and the cost assumptions used in the article. I assumed a home purchase price of $362,500, a down payment of 20% with the remainder in a 30 year mortgage at 6.41%. I assumed maintenance and insurance at $350 per month, increasing 3% annually. Since real estate taxes and mortgage interest are tax deductible, I assumed the after-tax cost for someone in the 33% marginal tax bracket. Real estate taxes on a pre-tax basis were assumed to be $5,000, which was $3,350 after the tax deduction was implied, this was assumed to increase 3% per year.

Over 30 years, how did the homeowner do? That $362,500 house would end up being worth $1,503,081. It sounds nice from a nominal point of view, but over those same thirty years the total cost of the home would have been $972,844. You would have made over half a million dollars and still this appears not too shabby, but remember we are talking over thirty years. This is an extremely long period of time. Before costs, the historical annual appreciation on the house according to OFHEO was only 4.855% (since 1984, the first year OFHEO kept track of the Portland area). That’s not a lot to begin with. What is the rate of return after costs? You are talking a time weighted return just north of 2%. Better than stuffing cash in your mattress, but not that far behind it either. And bear in mind that this analysis did not take into consideration commissions and costs for buying and selling the property, possible capital gains implications on the sale or major repairs or renovations; OFHEO assumes that the typical single family home will have $300K in renovations in repairs over the next 30 years. Take these costs into consideration and you can certainly be far worse off, possibly losing money in the long-term.

The point is that a home should be viewed as a use asset, something to hold and enjoy from a qualitative perspective. Sorry it is not an investment. For the prospective buyer, don’t fall in the trap of overextending yourself to buy a home due to its “investment value.” For the amateur landlord, you better be pricing your rent appropriately because the annual appreciation only isn’t there to justify the risk you are taking. If someone sells you on the premise that a home is a great investment, just tell them you know better than that.

Posted by Jeff Bogue at 08:06 AM

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Comments

Your analysis is flawed. When evaluating the return on home ownership, two additional factors need to be included. First, interest and taxes on your home are partially subsidized by the government through income tax deductibility. This can be quite substantial depending on your tax bracket. So you need to add back the net tax impact of ownership.

Second, you need to include the cost of any alternative to home ownership - such as rent. In the Portland area, where rents for even a small apartment average $1200 to $1500, the benefit of home ownership in retaining the value of your hard earned dollars is great. So again, you must add in the value of the costs of alternate living arrangements in arriving at the true value of ownership.

These two factors more than offset the costs of financing and maintaining a home when determining the overall benefit of your home investment.

Your Home IS a Great Investment and you sir are an idiot.

Posted by Ken Capron
March 28, 2007 03:31 PM

Did you actually really read the entry? The analysis took into consideration the AFTER tax cost of the mortgage interest and real estate taxes, assuming the person was in the 33% marginal tax bracket. Let me guide you with the exact wording:

Since real estate taxes and mortgage interest are tax deductible, I assumed the after-tax cost for someone in the 33% marginal tax bracket.

And as you said, the decision to rent or own a home is a cost decision, not an investment decision. And yes, there are situations where the person is better off economically renting than owning.

Nice try, but I believe the pot is calling the kettle black.

Posted by Jeff Bogue
March 28, 2007 03:55 PM

Super article Jeff! I've been looking at homes for the past 6 months, attempting to find at least a financial equilibrium so I'm not overtending myself with a mortgage, but factoring in long term financial gain. Your article provided some much needed insight on the matter. Thank you.

Posted by Jason
March 28, 2007 04:47 PM

Better than renting.

Posted by Kevin
March 28, 2007 04:52 PM

The comments your reader posted were rude and uncalled for. First there is always a little truth to every lie.A house should always be considered a home for your family first. While it is true you can yield substantial gains on the sale, holding time can have a tremendous effect. As a investment a house is a illiquid investment and extremely expensive to sell RE comm.5-7% of selling price while the owners equity may only be 20-30% (you do the math)the cost of selling your home is right up there with brain surgery. Remember very few people hold a property for 30 years and with all the fancy financing these days you can lose a lot of money in real estate or destroy your credit rating for years to come whiteness the current sub-prime loan situation. Please remember first last and always residential housing (1-4 units) is a place to raise a family or reduce your housing expense in exchange for manageing a multi-unit Bldg.

Posted by
March 28, 2007 05:55 PM

Nope - just calling the kettle Boque - since you don't have a clue. So what if you can read the WSJ? You're still one of those financial planners who rip people off by making them think they can't take care of things on their own.

Posted by Ken Capron
March 28, 2007 08:15 PM

You know Ken, you really aren’t creating any persuasive argument when all you can resort to is name calling.

Posted by Jeff Bogue
March 28, 2007 09:17 PM

as a CFA and real estate investor at the institutional level and personal level for some 20 plus years, I agree the analysis is accurate. It would be interesting to see the numbers when the transaction costs (broker fees, and closing costs on financing and annual repairs) are included. I suspect that would bring the investment yield closer to the one percent range.

Posted by Gekko
March 29, 2007 05:57 AM

Interesting article. I think this train of thought could lead into a compelling arguement for buying a home with a 15 year mortgage. I'd be curious to see the effect on the overall return % if the home were paid off in a shorter time period. Even if you could shave just a few years off the mortgage and save some interest expenses, I'd bet it would greatly improve the numbers.

Posted by matt
March 29, 2007 11:24 AM

I've stood back and listened in astonishment as the multitude of Mass-Holes interspersed with a few really delusional New Yorkers say how much their house is worth. Native Mainers like myself can only wonder at the utter stupidity of it all... But then again, we know better as we've seen this played out before. And the best part of it? The imported scum has slowed to a trickle.

Posted by Dennis O
March 29, 2007 07:08 PM

Boque - your sales pitch is exactly that. It's a canned statement they teach you in CFA school. But it is inaccurate. It's only purpose is to convince people that they need your services.

By the way, you also have to add in the value of the tax you DON'T have to pay on the capital gain if you hold the property more than a couple years. What other income goes untaxed like that?

So the Fed subsidizes your annual taxes and interest AND they allow your investment to earn value without taxing you on it! Try that with dividends, interest or widgets.

So instead of a non-deductible rent, you have a non-taxed income. How hard is it to see the full VALUE of investing in a home (primary residence). "Pretty sweet huh?"

Posted by Ken Capron
March 29, 2007 09:21 PM

Right Ken. Nothing like committing a lifetime of earnings for a depreciating asset that eats into your paycheck every week.

Weak-minded, economically illiterate real estate creeps never fail to say something stupid.

Posted by Dennis O
March 29, 2007 09:49 PM

Here is a point to ponder, stocks and bonds represents the value of a business and going concern. As we all know business come and go and can lose value regardless how long there are in business. Business can file bankruptcy and completely lose all there value and cease to exists. However Real Estate will always exist and never disappear, it may lose some its value for a short period of time but historic data shows that it will regain its value with time. Too bad the dot.com’s of the early 2000's could not do the same thing, I would have an extra $10,000.00 in my pocket. Lets face it I will never ever see that $10,000.00 but my real estate still exists and has always recovered in value!

Sincerely Bob

Posted by Robert Baizley
March 30, 2007 11:32 AM

Mr. Boque:
Thanks for your kind words about my article. I enjoyed reading your readers' emails as well. (We should compare!)
The article, which is still available for free at WSJ's realestatejournal.com, grew out of the first chapter of my book ("The WSJ Complete Real-Estate Investing Guidebook") called "Your Home Is Not an Investment Property." The response to that initial chapter was so terrific, that we're now preparing a new book on home-owning that (I hope) will be out next year.
Thanks again for your comments.
Best,
David Crook
Editor
The Wall Street Journal Sunday
david.crook@wsj.com

Posted by David Crook
March 30, 2007 11:55 AM

Mr. Baizley,

Enjoy paying exploding property taxes, insurance and maintenance on that "investment".

Posted by Dennis O
March 30, 2007 02:36 PM

Dennis

Are you kidding, the taxes, insurance and maintenance on a real estate investment is a bargain when compared to what a going concern/stock and bond is paying in taxes, insurance and maintenance. The company behind that stock or bond is going to pay directly or indirectly the same or more in real estate taxes not to mention the related payroll taxes, matching FICA, equipment and auto taxes.

When it come to insurance, that stock or bond entity will pay as much as 25 times more for the same insurance when compared to the real estate investment, and here again look at all the additional required insurance for a company: errors and omission, auto and equipment just to mention a few.

When it comes to maintenance it seems like that my office spends more in maintaining the photo copiers in my office in a year when compared to the maintenance on the real estate .

So yes I do enjoy paying the taxes, insurance and maintenance on my real estate investments because it is a bargain compared to what is pay by my stock and bonds for the same items. This is why so many business owners/CEO’s make substantial investment in real estate, they also know the related expenses with real estate are a bargain as well.

Posted by Robert Baizley
March 30, 2007 10:04 PM

Investing in its true definition is the purchase of a financial product or other item of value with an expectation of favorable future returns. In general terms, investment means the use of money in the hope of making more money. How can home ownership fit this description? Especially when in most cases, you end up making very little in return over time? And I'm sorry that you lost $10K on dot.com stocks Mr. Baizley. But you were speculating, not investing. And there is a difference between the two.

Every once in a while I come across these issues where people feel things are “absolute truths” where they are only half truths; and the home ownership is a great investment mantra is one of those. And I like to stick my neck out and make a stand against conventional wisdom. And hey, I own a home. I don’t look at it as an investment; I look it as my place to live.

I suggest checking out the article that inspired me to write this. It can be found at http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/tactics/20070313-crook.html?refresh=on

Posted by Jeff Bogue
March 30, 2007 11:09 PM

Hmmmm... let's see...

I've paid approximately $150 in tansaction fees on a $200k stock portfolio. Yet, transaction fees on your real estate" investments are upwards of 10% of the purchase price. So you're out $20,000 upfront on a $200k real estate "investment".

I haven't paid a penny in property taxes, school taxes, insurance on my portfolio and it doesn't need a new roof and boiler. How much $$$ will your real estate "investment" eat up in those costs this year?

I'm beginning to this Baizley is another real estate crook attempting to sell more of is overpriced, depreciating "investments".

Posted by Dennis O
March 31, 2007 08:58 AM

A house, a place called "home" where there are memories, a place your children feel comfortable/secure, a place where you entertain with the ones you love....the day your newborn child comes home to.....the day that same child goes off to college. Memories that are never forgotten whether you live in that home for one year or 50+ years. A house, this place you call "home"..... PRICELESS.

I thought this article was very informative and interesting....opinions are opinions....that's what makes the world go round.

Posted by undisclosed
April 2, 2007 12:27 PM

I agree totally if you classify a home as an investment then you must classify the investment as mediocre. However, it's much easier to get capital to invest in "real" estate then stocks & bonds. The return may be smaller but the total sum of the return for most individuals is greater. Try a REIT or one of the homebuilders if you want real estate exposure. Maybe wait a couple 1/4's though lol.

Posted by matt c
April 4, 2007 01:15 AM

It amazes me how many people are clueless as to the total costs associated with home ownership and the true appreciation rate for residential real estate. I think Robert J. Shiller pegged it at something like 1% above the CPI which is substantially below equities in the long run. Unfortunately, our houses/condos are investments if only because they are so costly and there are real price fluctuations which leads me to paraphrase Benjamin Graham's best advice, it's fun to buy dollars for 40 cents. Those days are coming for residential property in many chi chi neighborhoods. Hallelujah!

Posted by HalNSeattle
April 10, 2007 12:55 PM

Benefits of home ownership:
1. Mortgage interest and taxes are income tax deductable.
2. Principle paid is money back in your pocket.
2. If you hold for more than 7 years history tells us you will make good money on the transaction. I did on both of my previous homes.
3. You are the master of your domain and no landlord can tell you what to do. Build, remodel, or renovate, no permission except a building permit required.
4. Equity can be used to get a home equity loan with interest that is also tax deductable.
5. In my case, Portland, Maine, the rent I would have to pay to live in my home is is about 50-100% more than I pay for mortgage, taxes, insurance, and maintenance combined, because of the shortage of rental stock. And by rental stock I mean real rental property that is built with federal building codes, reinforced concrete construction for noise insulation, two parking spaces, security, and a renewable lease.

Benefits of renting (assuming you have found a rental property as described in item 5):
1. I can't think of any. I'll let you know if I do.

Posted by M Smith
April 13, 2007 04:47 PM

Lets see.. The benefit of buying real estate at the top of the cycle? I don't see any.

The downside of buying at the top of the cyle?

1)The "asset" depreciates for many years. How long will it take for this lunatic run up to correct? Many years, so why would any one consider such a silly risk?
2)Your tax assessments are based on a value that was just fantasy. Why overpay on taxes?

3) The mortgage interest deduction is laughable. It's best understood as "I pay 1 dollar to save 10 cents". Foolish

Be prepared to lose ALOT of money buying real estate today and for many years to come. The barking minority who deny this are the fraudulent realtors.

Posted by Harf
April 14, 2007 03:57 PM

I'd like to preface this comment by stating that I am 24 years old, unemployed, and living in my parents loft. I know very little about mortgages and how the housing market works, but I find this article to be a little... silly?

For a moment, lets compare 'investing' in a home to investing in a financial instrument of equivalent perceived risk. We'll call this instrument a bond. If you had to borrow money to purchase this bond, and after taxes etc., the net gain on the bond was only a few fractions of a percent, would you then label the bond as a poor investment? It might not achieve great returns, and it might not even be worth the risk for you as an investor, but your personal financial situation (having to borrow the money) would not make the entire asset class a poor investment. It was just a poor choice for you.

Now imagine that this bond was necessary for your survival. Buying the bond on borrowed money and only getting a return of a few percent seems like a far superior option to that of paying coupons (or rent). Mr. Boque realizes this, and stated it clearly in his comments above.

But how does real estate look when we treat it as we treat our other investments? What happens when we are able to pay for it in cash? All of a sudden it begins to behave as an investment again. This indicates to me that real estate is an investment. We hold it, expecting it to increase in value, and were disappointed when it doesn't. What effects its 'investment' status, according to Mr. Boque's definition, is not some outstanding characteristic of real estate itself, but the fact we must borrow so much money to obtain it. Just like buying stock on margin and then going bust, we see people who really couldn’t afford their homes having to relinquish them at the slightest dip in the housing market. It’s a poor use of leverage.

With that being said, is it a good investment? Obviously we live in a free market where sellers and banks are competing against people who rent property. Saying that ‘always renting’ or ‘always buying’ seems silly to me. It’s relative to the other options you have available at the time (including other investment opportunities). It’s a major financial decision, and you have to take all factors into account. But the majority of people won’t do this. The majority of people will react on some form of gut instinct or opinion formed years ago. These people will also post and argue about these pre-conceived notions on blogs such as this.

Does this make any sense?

Posted by Jeff
July 25, 2007 01:14 AM

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