That Didn't Hurt - Much
This morning USM professor Charlie Colgan presented his economic forecast for 2008.
I didn't have high hopes when I saw his title slide: "Maine in 2008: Still on Thin(ner) Ice." And then he made a reference to the crowd he attracted (almost the entire auditorium at the Hannaford Lecture Hall was occupied). Attendance is up when things get dicey. Everyone wants to know what to do. They don't care when times are good.
According to Colgan:
Job Growth is declining. The real downer is self-employment in the construction industry. Which is being hampered by the housing crunch.
Yes, sub prime mortgages exist in Maine. But the problems in Maine aren't as bad as they are nationally. We have a relatively low number of "creative mortgages." Housing prices have leveled off from their decline. Unfortunately, the housing bust nationally will be the biggest problem the economy has seen in a long time.
And he sees no reason for a drop in oil prices. This is being fueled by high global demand.
Overall, he sees a recession but not a bad one for Maine. The major moderating effect will be that Maine never had a great boom. So the bust won't be so bad.
There are tons of details to his report that I will refer to later. Colgan promised the report will be available at the Muskie School of Public Service website.
I wonder about tourism. If oil prices will stay high and consumer consumption won't save the economy, are people going to come to Maine this year? This would be a good chance for you to comment.
There were two questions that generated similar answers. One businessman wanted to know what advice would Colgan give the governor to improve Maine's business climate. And a USM senior wanted to know what his wages would be like when he graduates.
First, Colgan defined government's role in business as doing its job well. That means collecting taxes reasonably and efficiently (you can argue the definition of "reasonable" in the comments if you wish) and other core functions efficiently.
He added, "Maine doesn't do all that bad." Especially when you talk about state government.
As far as job prospects go, he wanted to debunk the myth that there are no good jobs in Maine. (Again, this is a chance to comment.) He believes there are a lot of good opportunities in the state. There could be more and believes the state needs for technology jobs.
He blames the national economy for that deficiency. And the says that the national recession will make them harder to find in Maine.
So I'm going to leave you with that thought. An often quoted economist likes the business climate in Maine.
What do you think?
Comments
Carl,
Thanks for informing us about this "interesting" presentation!
Maine government is doing an efficient job at collecting taxes from small businesses! We recently fought to keep them from becoming even more "reasonable" through an expanded sales tax to service businesses.
Still, I'm going to offer what may be considered a somewhat radical approach to the problem. How about we stop worrying as much about what the government of Maine can do to "help" us and focus on doing whatever we can do to help ourselves? In the meanwhile, let's join together to make sure the government is NOT doing anything to hurt Maine business through expanded taxation, excessive regulation and out-of-control spending.
To do this every person with an interest in Maine business must participate: at the very least get out and vote. Not just in national elections, but in the local, regional and statewide elections that directly impact state government policy.
Government of, for and by the people may be taking a few blows, but it's not dead yet! Don't wait for the government to help; participate by voting, writing to your elected representatives, attend Chamber of Commerce events and do your part to shape the policy that will move us forward.
After all, in our society the government isn't supposed to be a "them," it's supposed to be "us!"
Posted by Jim BouchardJanuary 10, 2008 03:31 PM
Subscribe
